Ahead of this summit with European leaders and Zalensky, Americans have to ask themselves one key question: are they ok with US soldiers being sent to this war?
The key aspect of all of those coming today is simple: will America guarantee Ukraines safety? If Putin lies again and starts attacking, will the US get involved, and are they willing to get involved militarily, to guarantee Ukraines safety?
And here’s the conumdrum: If Ukraine refuses to give up any territory, there is likely no deal. If the more they give up, and the more key areas, the more likely the deal will hold. So what Ukraine will agree to will play a role if the US is willing to offer any level of security guarantees.
The US could settle on no boots on the ground, but instant sanctions against Russia should they not keep their word, and instant sanctions against any nation that buys Russian oil, like India and China. But, if they agree to that, India may feel the need to comply, pushing up demand for Middle East oil, and increasing gas prices everywhere, including the US.
While we tend to look at it from the “Putin bad, Zelensky good” or just whether we like or hate Trump, the real stakes are much larger globally. There are some that simply want the US to keep sending money and arms to Ukraine, using Ukrainian lives to drain Russian resources. The end result with that is a prolonged war that may never end until everyone is dead.
Americans have to realize that every option has some impact on the US. Either we guarantee we will send soldiers if the peace deal is violated, or we guarantee we will take steps that will raise gas prices here and threaten commerce with other major nations, or we just keep funding a war as Ukrainian soldiers and innocent people die.
The only option that avoids all of this is Putin gets enough that he is likely to keep his word. The response by many will be that this is unfair, and it is. But peace isn’t about fair. It not about feeling good. Its about ending a situation that has no positive outcome and can have significant longterm impacts well beyond the countries involved, including the US.